The “Fear and Uncertainty” Trade
We are experiencing three events that have fed each other and this interaction has turned each event into a crisis. And while each crisis is contributing to uncertainty and sharp market declines in their own way, they have one thing in common - they are underpinning fear and uncertainty.
The European debt crisis is going to last a long time but daily changes in the European bond markets and daily conclusions by analysts who can do second grade math understand Europe does not have a liquidity crisis that is manageable but a solvency crisis that is not. Europe’s crisis has made a threefold contribution to the market sell-off – headlines on political decisiveness triggering selling, margin calls on bondholders triggering selling and math that says this is going to last a long time, keeping buyers out of the market.